A Markov model for predicting the development of slash pine plantations infected by fusiform rust

Arvanitis, L.G.; Amateis, R.L.

Mitteilungen der Forstlichen Versuchs und Forschungsanstalt Baden Wurttemberg 91: 79-104

Accession: 000803994

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Fusiform rust (Cronartium fusiforme), widespread in the southeastern USA, cannot be controlled in practice: early predictions of incidence and mortality are therefore necessary for plantation management. The incidence of the disease has increased massively in northern Florida since 1960 owing to more intensive silviculture. A Markovian model of the development of disease condition (incidence and severity) is presented. A forecast of conditions at 10 yr old, from data collected in a slash pine progeny trial plantation in Georgia at 3 and 5 yr old, generally overestimated the progress of the disease and showed the need for further refinement of the model.