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Forecasts of Indiana monthly farm prices using univariate Box-Jenkins analysis and corn futures prices

Spriggs, J.

North Central journal of agricultural economics 3(1): 81-87

1981


DOI: 10.2307/1349412
Accession: 001080040

Box-Jenkins analysis and futures price analysis are used to generate forecasts of monthly farm prices of corn in Indiana. The two methods are compared on the basis of their forecasting performance over a 20 year period. For the particular performance test conducted, this forecaster would have done better with futures price analysis. The individual forecasts for the two methods are combined in an attempt to generate composite forecasts with a lower mean squared error. The composite methods examined were not able to improve on the performance of the individual method involving the analysis of futures prices.

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