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Alternative estimates of fed beef supply response to risk



Alternative estimates of fed beef supply response to risk



American journal of agricultural economics 72(2): 475-487



Supply response models for fed beef incorporating risk by including both the mean and variance of output price are developed, estimated, and compared. Six different estimates of the mean and variance are obtained from futures prices; ARIMA processes; and naive, adaptive, and rational expectations models. Empirical estimates are compared using nonnested testing procedures and indicate that the choice of the expectations model significantly influences elasticity estimates and whether supply response is positive or negative. Empirical evidence does not support any one model in particular, suggesting that expectations are heterogenous rather than homogenous.

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Accession: 001750898

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DOI: 10.2307/1242351



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