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Estimating the commodity price model



Estimating the commodity price model



Discussion Paper Research Program in Development Studies, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University ( 154): 30pp.



This paper is concerned with the estimation and testing of a model of price formation for primary commodities, where supply and demand shocks are mediated by speculative storage. The model used supposes that, in the absence of storage, price will be a linear function of an independent and identically distributed shock. The paper begins by summarizing the simple storage model in the case where the driving variable (the harvest) is independently and identically distributed over time.

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Accession: 002373001

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