+ Site Statistics
+ Resolve Accession
+ Subscribe to Site Feeds
EurekaMag Most Shared ContentMost Shared
EurekaMag PDF Full Text ContentPDF Full Text
+ PDF Full Text
Request PDF Full TextRequest PDF Full Text
Submit PDF Full TextSubmit PDF Full Text
+ Follow Us
Follow on FacebookFollow on Facebook
Follow on TwitterFollow on Twitter
Follow on Google+Follow on Google+
Follow on LinkedInFollow on LinkedIn

+ Translate

The consequences of uncertainty for the prediction of the effects of schistosomiasis control programmes

, : The consequences of uncertainty for the prediction of the effects of schistosomiasis control programmes. Epidemiology & Infection 117(3): 537-550

Progress in the development of schistosomiasis models for use in control programmes is limited by the considerable uncertainty in many of the biological parameters. In this paper, this problem is addressed by a comprehensive sensitivity analysis of a schistosomiasis model using the Latin Hypercube method. Fifty simulations with different parameter contributions are run for 50 years with treatment during the first 20 years and reinfection thereafter. The analysis shows only a relatively small divergence between simulations during the chemotherapy treatment programme but considerable divergence in reinfection levels after treatment is stopped. A skewed distribution of outcomes was seen with most simulations showing effective control and a few where control had less impact. The most important uncertainty source was due to the unknown levels of acquired immunity and also uncertainty in the true worm burden. In particular, the strength of the immune response was most important in determining whether control was effective with higher immunity leading to less effective control. Among those simulations in which control was not very effective, those in which the mean worm burden was high showed the least effective control, Since both these are areas of genuine uncertainty, it is proposed that uncertainty analysis should be an integral part of any projection of control programmes.

Order PDF Full Text


Click here to order any other PDF Full Text

Accession: 002980709

PMID: 8972681

DOI: 10.2307/3864601

PDF Full Text: The consequences of uncertainty for the prediction of the effects of schistosomiasis control programmes

Submit PDF Full Text

No spam - Every submission is manually reviewed

Due to poor quality, we do not accept files from Researchgate

Submitted PDF Full Texts will always be free for everyone
(We only charge for PDFs that we need to acquire)

Select a PDF file:

Other references

To, K.K.W.; Cheng, V.C.C.; Tang, B.S.F.; Fan, Y-Wah.; Yuen, K-Yung., 2006: False-negative cerebrospinal fluid cryptococcal antigen test due to small-colony variants of Cryptococcus neoformans meningitis in a patient with cystopleural shunt. This is the first report of a small-colony variant Cryptococcus neoformans isolated from the cerebrospinal fluid of a patient with cystopleural shunt associated chronic meningitis. Cryptococcal antigen testing of the cerebrospinal fluid and the s...

GUSEV, M.I., 1957: Effect of small concentrations of lead on porphyrin metabolism in animals. Gigiena i Sanitariia 22(8): 21-25

Toshkov As; Obretenova Kl; Zaharieva S., 1974: Elective localization of streptococci in definite tissues and organs of sensitized rabbits. Izvestiya na Mikrobiologicheskiya Institut B"lgarska Akademiya na Naukite 24: 53-59

Geib Karl Wilhelm, 1972: Volcanic chimneys with breccia and volcanics in the vicinity of the Lem Mountain, the Kreuznacher Rhyolite massif and the area of the Waldboeckelheim Sheet; (Nahe area). Mainzer Geowissenschaftliche Mitteilungen 1: 59-69

Shi Yeen, T.N.; Pathmanathan, R.; Shiran, M.S.dik; Ahmad Zaid,; Cheah, Y.K.ueen, 2013: Detection of epidermal growth factor receptor mutations in formalin fixed paraffin embedded biopsies in Malaysia non-small cell lung cancer patients. Somatic mutations of the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) are reportedly associated with various responses in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients receiving the anti-EGFR agents. Detection of the mutation therefore plays an important...

Lee J.H.; Lee E.S.; Park M.W.; Nam J.H., 1988: Evaluation of the yield stability in barley. Stability parameters on the agronomic characters of 12 barley bred lines grown in the regional performance trials were computed to understand the environmental stability. Data obtained from the trials were analyzed by statistical model proposed by...

Lunt, ID., 1988: The mammals of Black Hill Bushland Reserve, Edgecombe, Victoria. Victorian Naturalist (Blackburn): 1056: 134-135

Diefenbach C.; Erbel R.; Pop T.; Schmitz Huebner U.; Schofer G.; Mathey D.G.; Bleifeld W.; Meyer J., 1988: Dose related efficacy of single chain prourokinase in acute myocardial infarction. European Heart Journal 9(ABSTR SUPPL 1): 214

Pappagallo, M., 2002: Incidence, prevalence, and management of opioid bowel dysfunction. Opioid bowel dysfunction (OBD) is a common adverse effect associated with opioid therapy. OBD is commonly described as constipation; however, it is a constellation of adverse gastrointestinal (GI) effects, which also includes abdominal cramping, b...

Franks, A.L.; Lee, N.C.; Kendrick, J.S.; Rubin, G.L.; Layde, P.M., 1987: Cigarette smoking and the risk of epithelial ovarian cancer. Data from the Cancer and Steroid Hormone study was used to evaluate the effect o cigarette smoking on the risk of developing epithelial ovarian cancer. This multicenter, population-based case-control study of oral contraceptive (OC) use and ovari...