Evaluation of extension and USDA price and production forecasts
Kastens, T.L.; Schroeder, T.C.; Plain, R.
Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 23(1): 244-261
This study examines the accuracy of production and price forecasts constructed from those provided by respondents to the American Agricultural Economics Association's Annual Outlook Survey over the period 1983-95. Both composite (simple average) forecasts constructed from all respondents (557 responses from 201 unique respondents) and forecasts by extension respondents (university outlook economists responsible for forecasting those series) are examined.