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Commodity price uncertainty in developing countries

Commodity price uncertainty in developing countries

Working Paper Series Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford (WPS/2000-12): 49 pp.

Commodity export price uncertainty is typically measured as the standard deviation of the terms of trade, but this approach encounters at least 3 objections. First, terms of trade indices are unsuitable as proxies for commodity price movements per se. Second, the shortness of terms of trade time series makes them inappropriate as a basis for constructing time varying uncertainty measures.

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