The main determinants of wheat import demand in Egypt reference to market structure, conduct and performance in the wheat world market


Alexandria Journal of Agricultural Research 46(2): 73(Ar)-85(Ar)


ISSN/ISBN: 0044-7250
Accession: 003977227

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The objectives of this study are: to analyse the structure of the world wheat market; to analyse the determinants of Egyptian imports of wheat and flour, through a statistical estimation of the demand functions for wheat and flour imports; and to establish measures which can guide policymakers to design sound international policies to achieve higher food security levels. The results suggest that: the world wheat market is characterized by oligopoly; the main determinants of demand for Egyptian wheat and flour imports are population growth and the real prices of wheat imports; and wheat and flour imports will amount to 7.57 and 8.36 million tonnes in 2005 and 2010, respectively. Measurement and evaluation of the coefficient of instability and the coefficient of geographical concentration of Egyptian wheat and flour imports indicate that: the effect of instability in the value of imports was more than the effect of instability in the quantity of imports; and that Egyptian imports of wheat and flour depend on giant wheat exporting countries. It is suggested that self sufficiency in wheat can be increased through: the expansion of cultivated wheat area; the distribution of highly productive seeds; and positive incentives.