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Understanding USDA corn and soybean production forecasts: methods, performance and market impacts over 1970-2004

Good, D.L.; Irwin, S.H.

AgMAS Project Research Report University of Illinois (2005-03): 49 pp.

2005


Accession: 004488485

A review of USDA's crop forecasting procedures and methodology confirmed the objectivity and consistency of the forecasting process over time. No changes in methodology occurred in 2004. Month-to-month changes in maize and soyabean production forecasts from 1970 through 2004 indicated little difference in magnitude and direction of monthly changes over time. USDA production forecast errors were largest in August and smaller in subsequent forecasts.

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