+ Site Statistics
+ Search Articles
+ Subscribe to Site Feeds
Most Shared
PDF Full Text
+ PDF Full Text
Request PDF Full Text
+ Follow Us
Follow on Facebook
Follow on Twitter
Follow on LinkedIn
+ Translate
+ Recently Requested

A computer simulation of medical decision strategy performance

A computer simulation of medical decision strategy performance

Computers and Biomedical Research, An International Journal 18(6): 563-575

This study demonstrates a computer model which can be used to compare the effects of errors in probability and utility estimation on the performance of Bayesian and alternative medical decision strategies. The model task requires choosing one of three treatments for a patient with one of three diseases based on the patient's state with respect to five binary cues and estimates of the prior probabilities of disease, the conditional probabilities of the cues and the utilities of the treatments. A classic decision analytic strategy uses Bayes' formula to calculate posterior probabilities of disease and chooses treatments based on maximization of expected value. Alternative strategies use likelihood ratios to calculate disease scores for each patient state and choose the treatment with highest payoff for the disease with the highest score. Two strategies with different cutoffs for the ratios are compared with a random strategy and a classic decision analytic strategy. The simulation results show that the payoffs for all strategies except the random strategy decline with increasing estimation error. The decision analytic strategy has the highest mean payoff at all levels of error. The differences between this optical strategy and the alternatives, however, decrease as estimation error increases, and the frequency with which the strategies based on simple diagnostic scoring rules outperform the formal Bayesian strategy increases.

(PDF emailed within 1 workday: $29.90)

Accession: 004566302

Download citation: RISBibTeXText

PMID: 3841042

Related references

Computer simulation of medical logic in clinical decision support system. New York State Journal of Medicine 72(12): 1636-1644, 1972

A subcutaneous insulin pharmacokinetic model for computer simulation in a diabetes decision support role: validation and simulation. Journal of Diabetes Science and Technology 2(4): 672-680, 2008

Improved fourth-year medical student clinical decision-making performance as a resuscitation team leader after a simulation-based curriculum. Simulation in Healthcare 5(3): 139-145, 2011

Medical decision making diagnostic strategies and expert systems ifip imia international federation for information processing international medical informatics association international working conference on computer aided medical decision making prague czechoslovakia sept 30 oct 4 1985. 1985

Use of the surface-based registration function of computer-aided design/computer-aided manufacturing software in medical simulation software for three-dimensional simulation of orthognathic surgery. Journal of the Korean Association of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons 39(4): 197-199, 2014

Simulation study of a decision making model of squash competition phase two testing the model through the use of computer simulation. Human Movement Science 5(4): 373-392, 1986

Computer modeling and medical decision making computer models for testing artificial pacemaker algorithms. Van Bemmel, J H , F Gremy And J Zvarova (Ed ) Medical Decision Making: Diagnostic Strategies And Expert Systems; Ifip-Imia (International Federation For Information Processing - International Medical Informatics-Association) International Working Conference on Computer-Aided Medical Decision-Making, Prague, Czechoslovakia, Sept 30-Oct 4, Xiii+393p Elsevier Science Publishers B V : Amsterdam, Netherlands; (Dist in Usa And Canada By Elsevier Science Publishing Co , Inc : New Yo, 1985

The computer as patient. Trials with computer-based simulation in medical education in UmeƄ. Nordisk Medicin 96(10): 244-246, 1981

Effects of Information Access Cost and Accountability on Medical Residents' Information Retrieval Strategy and Performance During Prehandover Preparation: Evidence From Interview and Simulation Study. Human Factors 57(8): 1459-1471, 2016

Report of the committee on simulation of the bio medical engineering society application of computer simulation to research in the life sciences. Federation Proceedings 29(2): 957, 1970

A simulation approach to decision making in IT service strategy. Thescientificworldjournal 2014: 829156-829156, 2014

A computer simulation of the EPI survey strategy. International Journal of Epidemiology 14(3): 473-481, 1985

A strategy to teach medical decision making within a medical school curriculum. Journal of Cancer Education 6(3): 123-128, 1991

Computer and experimental simulation of triad decision making. Behavioral Science 21(6): 532-547, 1976

Use of computer simulation in deciding breeding strategy. Biometrics in plant breeding: Proceedings of the eighth meeting of the Eucarpia section Biometrics on plant breeding, July 1-6, 1991, Brno, Czechoslovakia: 243-249, 1991