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Epidemiological model of acute bacterial and viral diarrheal diseases


, : Epidemiological model of acute bacterial and viral diarrheal diseases. Journal of Diarrhoeal Diseases Research 3(2): 65-72

A prototype of an epidemiological model on the dynamics of acute diarrhoeal diseases was constructed. The model is restricted to the common acute bacterial and viral diarrhoeas caused by enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC) and rotavirus. The model was conceived as an epidemiological process, in which the population flowed among various epidemiological classes and was expressed in a system of equations. A suitable computer program was written, enabling simulation of the natural course of infections in endemic and epidemic situations. The model appears to be a useful tool for planning and evaluating control programs. However, further validation and refinement of the model, e.g. age structuring, adaptation to specific infections and possible incorporation of seasonality, is needed.

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