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Epidemiological models of polio myelitis and measles and their application in the planning of immunization programs


, : Epidemiological models of polio myelitis and measles and their application in the planning of immunization programs. Bulletin of the World Health Organization 60(3): 405-422

The construction and application of epidemiological models of measles and poliomyelitis is described. In these models, epidemiological classes and their age structure were based on the natural history of these diseases in the population aged 0-19 yr. The flow of the population through the classes was expressed as an equation system suitable for computer interpretation. The models were used to simulate both the natural course of the diseases and the effect of various immunization schemes. The models were also used to explore prospects for control and eradication of these diseases with specific immunization programs, and their relative effectiveness and cost-effectiveness are discussed.

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