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Epidemiological studies on the theoretical prediction of food poisoning outbreaks based on weather and sea water data


, : Epidemiological studies on the theoretical prediction of food poisoning outbreaks based on weather and sea water data. Bulletin of Azabu University Veterinary Medicine 1(1): 89-104

An improved model is presented for predicting outbreaks of bacterial food poisoning. The model incorporates 8 weather variables, 4 seawater parameters and 2 epidemiological variables (number of outbreaks/day and patients/outbreak). In predicting outbreaks with this model, it is sufficient to input the average of the values for the 3 days before the prediction date for all variables, using data from the year before the prediction date. Using combined data from the previous 2-3 yr may improve the predictability.

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