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Trend prediction for ozone an analysis of model uncertainty with comparison to detection thresholds

, : Trend prediction for ozone an analysis of model uncertainty with comparison to detection thresholds. Atmospheric Environment 16(5): 1109-1116

An analysis of the effects of uncertain factors on near-term O3 trend prediction was presented. Uncertainties in trend for total O3 and upper level O3 were examined. A range of possible trend that was consistent with a range of model assumptions about kinetics, transport and trends in trace species was defined. A most probable trend estimate was presented that included the simultaneous effects of CFM [chlorofluoromethane] release, increased CO2 and northern hemisphere subsonic aircraft emissions. The 10 yr trend in total O3 relative to 1970 was 0.1% for this case. Upper level O3 was predicted to have decreased by 2.5% in the 10 yr between 1970-1980. Estimated uncertainty ranges and most probable trend estimates were compared to detection thresholds developed from statistical models of Dobson total O3 data and Umkehr data.

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