+ Site Statistics
+ Search Articles
+ Subscribe to Site Feeds
EurekaMag Most Shared ContentMost Shared
EurekaMag PDF Full Text ContentPDF Full Text
+ PDF Full Text
Request PDF Full TextRequest PDF Full Text
+ Follow Us
Follow on FacebookFollow on Facebook
Follow on TwitterFollow on Twitter
Follow on Google+Follow on Google+
Follow on LinkedInFollow on LinkedIn

+ Translate

Trend prediction for ozone an analysis of model uncertainty with comparison to detection thresholds

Atmospheric Environment 16(5): 1109-1116
Trend prediction for ozone an analysis of model uncertainty with comparison to detection thresholds
An analysis of the effects of uncertain factors on near-term O3 trend prediction was presented. Uncertainties in trend for total O3 and upper level O3 were examined. A range of possible trend that was consistent with a range of model assumptions about kinetics, transport and trends in trace species was defined. A most probable trend estimate was presented that included the simultaneous effects of CFM [chlorofluoromethane] release, increased CO2 and northern hemisphere subsonic aircraft emissions. The 10 yr trend in total O3 relative to 1970 was 0.1% for this case. Upper level O3 was predicted to have decreased by 2.5% in the 10 yr between 1970-1980. Estimated uncertainty ranges and most probable trend estimates were compared to detection thresholds developed from statistical models of Dobson total O3 data and Umkehr data.

(PDF 0-2 workdays service: $29.90)

Accession: 006839272

Related references

Combining the SWAT model with sequential uncertainty fitting algorithm for streamflow prediction and uncertainty analysis for the Lake Dianchi Basin, China. Hydrological Processes, 2012

A comparison of techniques for the estimation of model prediction uncertainty. Ecological Modelling 115(1): 45-59, Feb 1, 1999

Ozone air quality over north america: part II--an analysis of trend detection and attribution techniques. Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association 51(2): 283-306, 2001

Probabilistic inversion of a terrestrial ecosystem model: analysis of uncertainty in parameter estimation and model prediction. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 20(2): GB2007, 2006

Sensitivity analysis of uncertainty in model prediction. Journal of Physical Chemistry. A 112(12): 2579-2588, 2008

Local sensitivity-uncertainty analysis of a 2-D ozone model A systematic approach to assess and refine models. Abstracts of Papers American Chemical Society 213(1-3): ENVR 164, 1997

Bias-corrected groundwater model prediction uncertainty analysis. Calibration And Reliability In Groundwater Modelling: Credibility Of Modelling: 21, 2008

Trend analysis of tropospheric ozone concentrations utilizing the 20 year data set of ozone balloon soundings over payerne switzerland. Atmospheric Environment Part A General Topics 25(9): 1739-1750, 1991

Integrated shared earth model; 3D pore-pressure prediction and uncertainty analysis. Geophysics 23(1): 52-59, 2004

The morbidity analysis and trend prediction of malaria in China using the Grey model method. Zhongguo Meijieshengwuxue ji Kongzhi Zazhi = Chinese Journal of Vector Biology and Control 15(2): 43-45, 2004