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Studies of the mortality of a bomb survivors 9. mortality 1950 1985 part 1. comparison of risk coefficients for site specific cancer mortality based on the ds 86 and t 65dr shielded kerma and organ doses



Studies of the mortality of a bomb survivors 9. mortality 1950 1985 part 1. comparison of risk coefficients for site specific cancer mortality based on the ds 86 and t 65dr shielded kerma and organ doses



Radiation Research 118(3): 502-524



As a result of the rerassessment of the A-bomb dosimetry, new (DS86) doses were calculated in 1986. In this paper, site-specific estimates of cancer mortality in the years 1950-1985, based on these new doses, are compared with those using the T65DR doses. The subjects of the study are 75.991 members of the Life Span Study sample for whom DS86 doses have been calculated. This reevaluation of the exposures does not change the list of radiation-related cancers. Most differences in dose response between Hiroshima and Nagasaki are no longer significant with the DS86 doses. The dose-response curve is closer to linear with the DS86 than the T65DR doses even for leukemia in the entire dose range, though, statistically, many other models cannot be excluded. However, in the low-dose range, the risk of leukemia remains nonlinear. Assuming a linear model at an RBE of 1, and using organ-absorbed doses, the risk coefficients derived from the two dosimetries are very similar, whereas those based on shielded kerma are about 40% higher with the new dosimetry. If RBE values larger than 1 are assumed, the disparity between the two dosimetries increases because the neutron dose is much greater in the T65DR. At an RBE of 10, for the five specific cancers, i.e., female breast colon, leukemia, lung, and stomach, the increase in excess number of deaths per 104 PYS under the DS86 varies from 12% (colon) to 133% (female breast). The magnitude of the effects of such modifiers of radiation-induced cancer as age at time of bomb and sex do not differ between the two dose systems.

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Accession: 007830478

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PMID: 2727272


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