Time series forecasting models for sugarcane production sugar production and percent sugar yield seasonal arima forecasting models

Lin T L.; Shia B C.; Tang R T.

Report of the Taiwan Sugar Research Institute 127: 1-10

1990


Accession: 007953214

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Abstract
The data on sugarcane production, sugar production, and percent sugar yield in Taiwan Sugar Corporation during the period of 1948 to 1988 were analyzed, and the seasonal ARIMA method was applied to develop forecasting models. The results obtained appeared to be good, especially for the forecasting of sugar production and percent sugar yield. Predictions of sugarcane production, sugar production, and percent sugar yield, with the models developed were made for the crop years of 1988/189, 1989/1990, and 1990/1991. The differences between the predicted and observed values in 1988/1989 were 1.691 ton/ha (100.821-99.125) with 1.7% relative error for sugarcane production; -0.2388 ton/ha (9.4982-9.737) with 2.5% relative error for sugar production; and -0.13% (9.687-9.82) with 1.3% relative error for percent sugar yield, respectively.