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Water pollution and water quality variation in the upper stream parts of Ohta river and Kum river: Report 2. Properties of water quality variation and application of ARIMA model to water quality management



Water pollution and water quality variation in the upper stream parts of Ohta river and Kum river: Report 2. Properties of water quality variation and application of ARIMA model to water quality management



Medical Journal of Hiroshima University 40(6): 567-580



This study was designed to assess whether ARIMA model is effective in the management of the water quality in reservoirs of OHTA river (HIROSHIMA city in Japan) and KUM river (DAEJEON city in Korea). Time series data of water temperature (WT), pH, turbidity (TB), conductivity (CT) and dissolved oxygen (DO) were analyzed by the use of Fourier series and ARIMA model. The results were as follows. 1) The harmonic analysis (Fourier series) of time series data showed that the significant periods (R-j values more than 5%) existed in all items of both rivers, and the dominant period of 366 days (R-1 value more than 30%) in all items except TB of OHTA river. 2) The ARIMA models provided satisfactory results after the removal of significant periodic components. The optimum ARIMA models of OHTA river and KUM river were as follows; (1) The models for WT were (2, 0, 0) and (3, 0, 0), respectively. (2) The models for pH were (4, 0, 0) (phi-2, phi-3=0) and (1, 0, 0), respectively. (3) The models for TB were (8, 0, 0) (phi-2 apprx phi-7 =0) and (9, 0, 0) (phi-5, phi-7 = 0), respectively. (4) The models for CT were (1, 0, 0) and (2, 0, 0), respectively. (5) The model for DO of OHTA river was (2, 0, 0). 3) Result indicated the effectiveness of ARIMA model in the management of water quality, although it is necessary to observe the water quality regularly.

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