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Econometric models of the turkey industry in the United States

Econometric models of the turkey industry in the United States

Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics. Ottawa 47-60

This paper is an empirical investigation of the several major relationships that explain the behaviour of the US turkey industry in the 1946-66 period. A model is constructed that consists of four structural equations: (1) consumer demand; (2) farm supply; (3) cold storage accumulation, and (4) cold storage liquidation, and an identity equation. Values for the structural parameters derived from (1) ordinary least squares (OLS); (2) limited information single equation (LISE); (3) two stage least squares (TSLS), and (4) three stage least squares (3SLS). The estimation techniques are evaluated by assessing their forecasting ability against observed data in the post-1966 period. No one method proved superior to another. An index of dispersion indicated that 3SLS is superior in forecasting consumer demand and farm supply. The 3SLS and OLS are about equal in forecasting cold storage accumulation and TSLS, LISE, and OLS are about equal forecasters for cold storage liquidation. A. abr.

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