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Seismic risk in Turkey, the Aegean and the eastern Mediterranean; the occurrence of large magnitude earthquakes



Seismic risk in Turkey, the Aegean and the eastern Mediterranean; the occurrence of large magnitude earthquakes



Geophysical Journal of the Royal Astronomical Society 78(2): 475-506



The file of Turkish seismicity developed by Kandilli Observatory, Istanbul, for earthquakes to 1970 is extended here up to 1978 using ISC and PDE data. Entries into this file are maintained on the surface wave magnitude scale M (sub s) , and conversion of body wave magnitude m (sub b) to M (sub s) has been carried out where necessary using a formula derived for Turkish earthquakes. Completeness analysis suggests that magnitudes M (sub s) > or =4.5 may be used for statistical evaluation of seismic risk. Forecasting results from least squares and maximum likelihood estimates of the whole process Gutenberg-Richter cumulative frequency law of earthquake magnitude occurrence, and from the part process of Gumbel's first extreme value distribution, all show small systematic differences in forecasts. Combination of the Gumbel III earthquake occurrence statistics for each cell with an inferred intensity attenuation law leads to a suite of perceptibility curves which give the probability of perceiving specific intensity levels from each possible earthquake magnitude up to the local upper bound magnitude omega . This family of curves generated for an individual cell is seen to be nested, and shows a peak probability for each intensity level which typically occurs at similar magnitudes defined as the "most perceptible" earthquake. These "most perceptible" earthquakes show values which range from an M (sub s) of about 5.5 to 7.5 for regional seismicity cells in Turkey; local values may be used as a criterion for choosing engineering design time histories. The seismic risk parameters from the cellular analysis of seismicity are interpretated as contoured seismic risk maps. These maps show that contoured values of the maximum strain energy earthquake M (sub 3) usually exceed the 75 yr earthquake by about one-half magnitude for similar geographic locations.--Modified journal abstract.

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Accession: 019988284

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DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-246x.1984.tb01961.x


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