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Statistical estimation of maximum possible earthquake magnitude for Baikal rift zone



Statistical estimation of maximum possible earthquake magnitude for Baikal rift zone



Geologiya i Geofizika 39(10): 1443-1455



The Bayesian approach is used to estimate main seismic parameters; M (sub max) --maximum possible regional magnitude; lambda --seismic-activity rate; and b--slope of the plot for the magnitude frequency law. The suggested method allows one to use catalogs with varying lower magnitude completeness threshold as well as historical catalogs. The quantities of M (sub max) (T) are estimated, where M (sub max) (T) is the maximum magnitude of an earthquake that will occur in a future time interval T. Also, the magnitude uncertainties (standard deviations) are established. The method is applied to estimate M (sub max) and M (sub max) (T) in the Baikal rift zone. This estimation gives M (sub max) --8.07 + or - 0.47.

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