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Statistical estimation of maximum regional earthquake magnitude M (sub max)

Kijko Andrzej

Pages 17-25 2000

2000

This paper provides a generic equation for the evaluation of the maximum regional earthquake magnitude m (sub max) . The equation is capable of generating solutions in different forms, depending on the assumptions of the model and/or the available information about past seismicity. It includes the cases (i) when earthquake magnitudes are distributed according to the truncated frequency-magnitude Gutenberg-Richter relation, (ii) when the empirical magnitude distribution deviates moderately from the Gutenberg-Richter model, and (iii) when no specific model of the magnitude distribution is assumed. As an example of application, the techniques described are applied in the assessment of m (sub max) for Southern California. The three estimates of m (sub max) obtained in this work are: 8.32+ or -0.43, 8.31+ or -0.43 and 8.68+ or -0.78. Since the third procedure applied is non-parametric and does not require specification of the functional form of the magnitude distribution, its estimate of the maximum magnitude for Southern California (viz. 8.68+ or -0.78) is considered more reliable than the other two, which are based on the Gutenberg-Richter model.

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