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The effect of lunar phase on seismicity in northern China and its significance for earthquake prediction



The effect of lunar phase on seismicity in northern China and its significance for earthquake prediction



Dizhen = Earthquake 18(4): 325-330



The effect of lunar phase on earthquakes with Ml> or =4.0 that occurred in North China since 1970 was analyzed. Results indicate that the occurrence of earthquakes with Ms> or =5.0 does not show correlation to lunar phase and is obviously stochastic. Before strong earthquakes with Ms> or =7.0, however, the occurrence of moderate earthquakes is obviously related to lunar phase. It is significant in medium- and short-term prediction of earthquakes with Ms> or =7.0. When moderate earthquakes occur near the period of the new moon or full moon, future strong earthquakes occur. At present, the occurrence of the moderate earthquakes in North China does not show correlation to lunar phase, so the possibility of the occurrence of earthquakes with Ms> or =7.0 is relatively low.

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