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Are reservoir-induced earthquakes of magnitude or = 50 at Koyna, India, preceded by pairs of earthquakes of magnitude or = 40?



Are reservoir-induced earthquakes of magnitude or = 50 at Koyna, India, preceded by pairs of earthquakes of magnitude or = 40?



Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 74(3): 863-873



Earthquakes of magnitude > or = 5 on 13 September 1967, 10 December 1967, and 17 October 1973 in the Koyna region were each preceded by two earthquakes of magnitude > or = 4.0 occurring within the preceding 15 days. In comparison, the activity of September 1980 was different. An earthquake of magnitude > or = 5.0 occurred on 2 September and two more > or = 5.0 earthquakes occurred on 20 September. These earthquakes were not preceded by pairs of > or = 4.0 events. All events of magnitude > or = 4.0 during 1974 through 1976 were singular (no two such events occurred within 15 days of one another). There appears to be a 50 per cent probability of occurrence of a magnitude > or = 5.0 earthquake if two earthquakes of magnitude > or = 4.0 are closely spaced in time (within 15 days) in the Koyna region.--Modified journal abstract.

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