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Simple clinical variables predict liver histology in hepatitis c prospective validation of a clinical prediction model



Simple clinical variables predict liver histology in hepatitis c prospective validation of a clinical prediction model



Digestive Disease Week Abstracts & Itinerary Planner : Abstract No M1428



Background: A recent single-center multivariate analysis of hepatitis C (HCV) patients (Romagnuolo et al., 2001) showed that ferritin gtoreq 200mcg/L and spider nevi and/or albumin 3 bridges. The clinical scoring system was correlated with histology; LRs and Fisher Exact p-values were calculated. Results: Data recording was complete in 77 and 38 patients with fibrotic stage and inflammatory grade (mostly due to missing ferritins), respectively. For fibrosis (p<0.001), 7/8 patients with any 2 criteria (LR 27), 6/22 with any 1 criterion (LR 1.4) and 3/47 with no criteria (LR 0.3) had significant fibrosis (stage 2-3) on biopsy. For inflammation (p=0.036), 5/5 patients with any 2 criteria (LR 7.4), 10/14 with any 1 criterion (LR 1.6), and 8/19 patients with no criteria (LR 0.5) had inflammation on liver biopsy. When missing variables were assumed to be normal in all cases where they were missing, recalculated LRs were almost identical. Conclusion: Our published model, consisting of simple clinical variables, accurately and significantly predicted fibrosis and inflammation in HCV and appears validated in this independent multi-centre sample.

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Accession: 035731667

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DOI: 10.1080/00365520500287400


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