+ Site Statistics
+ Search Articles
+ PDF Full Text Service
How our service works
Request PDF Full Text
+ Follow Us
Follow on Facebook
Follow on Twitter
Follow on LinkedIn
+ Subscribe to Site Feeds
Most Shared
PDF Full Text
+ Translate
+ Recently Requested

A Precautionary Tale of Uncertain Tail Fattening



A Precautionary Tale of Uncertain Tail Fattening



Environmental and Resource Economics 55(2): 159-173



Suppose that there is a probability density function for how bad things might get, but that the overall rate at which this probability density function slims down to approach zero in the tail is uncertain. The paper shows how a basic precautionary principle of tail fattening could then apply. The worse is the contemplated damage, the more should a decision maker consider the bad tail to be among the relatively fatter-tailed possibilities. A rough numerical example is applied to the uncertain tail distribution of climate sensitivity.

Please choose payment method:






(PDF emailed within 0-6 h: $19.90)

Accession: 036803366

Download citation: RISBibTeXText

DOI: 10.1007/s10640-013-9646-y


Related references

Is there intracellular cellulose in the appendicularian tail epidermis? A tale of the adult tail of an invertebrate chordate. Communicative and Integrative Biology 4(6): 768-771, 2011

Jimmy and Janes day: a precautionary tale. Journal of pesticide reform: a ication of the Northwest Coalition for Alternatives to Pesticideser 18(2): 2-8, 1998

Serum protein electrophoresis: a precautionary tale. Pathology 44(4): 371-373, 2012

Lessons from the DeepWater Horizon debacle: a precautionary tale. Clean Technologies and Environmental Policy 12(4): 331-333, 2010

Pesticides and children. Jimmy and Jane's day: a precautionary tale. Journal of Pesticide Reform 18(2): 2-8, 1998

The precautionary principle puts demand on reporting of uncertain risks. Lakartidningen 105(34): 2274-5; Discussion 2275, 2008

The precautionary principle: making wise decisions in an uncertain world. NABC Report (15): 181-190, 2004

What killed Frame Lake? A precautionary tale for urban planners. Peerj 6: E4850, 2018

Pareto Optimal Trade in an Uncertain World: GMOs and the Precautionary Principle. American journal of agricultural economics 89(2): 520-532, 2007

Precautionary discourse. Thinking through the distinction between the precautionary principle and the precautionary approach in theory and practice. Politics and the Life Sciences 32(1): 2-21, 2013

Spotted-tailed northern quolls, Dasyurus hallucatus: a precautionary tale. Memoirs of the Queensland Museum. 30 June; 492: 760, 2004

Experience during the first year of procalcitonin implementation: a precautionary tale for smaller facilities. Infection Control and Hospital Epidemiology 39(9): 1142-1143, 2018

Legally binding precautionary and prevention principles: Aspects of epistemic uncertain causation. Environmental Science and Policy 54: 185-198, 2015

Managing the risk of uncertain threshold responses: comparison of robust, optimum, and precautionary approaches. Risk Analysis 27(4): 1009-1026, 2007

Uncertain risks of drug related harms, the precautionary principle and limitations of meta-analysis. British Journal of Clinical Pharmacology 68(5): 647-650, 2009