+ Site Statistics
+ Search Articles
+ PDF Full Text Service
How our service works
Request PDF Full Text
+ Follow Us
Follow on Facebook
Follow on Twitter
Follow on LinkedIn
+ Subscribe to Site Feeds
Most Shared
PDF Full Text
+ Translate
+ Recently Requested

The Association of Public Health Observatories (APHO) Diabetes Prevalence Model: estimates of total diabetes prevalence for England, 2010-2030



The Association of Public Health Observatories (APHO) Diabetes Prevalence Model: estimates of total diabetes prevalence for England, 2010-2030



Diabetic Medicine 28(5): 575-582



To provide robust estimates of the total prevalence of diabetes (including undiagnosed) in England to support effective planning and delivery of services. Age- and sex-specific prevalence of diagnosed and undiagnosed diabetes in people aged 16 years and older [based on HbA(1c) of 6.5% (48 mmol/mol) or greater] were taken from the Health Survey for England 2006. Data from the Health Survey for England 2004 were used to adjust for ethnic difference in prevalence. A deprivation adjustment refined the geographical distribution of diabetes prevalence. Projected diabetes prevalence was calculated using trends in overweight and obesity prevalence from the Health Surveys for England 2003 to 2008. In 2010 there were an estimated 3.1 million (7.4%) people aged 16 years and older with diabetes in England. Comparisons between the 2008/2009 Quality and Outcomes Framework data and estimates for 2009 suggest that that 27.1% of the total number of people with diabetes are not included on general practice diabetes registers. The total number of adults with diabetes is projected to rise to 4.6 million or 9.5% by 2030. Approximately half of this increase is attributable to the changing age and ethnic group structure of the population and half is because of the rising prevalence of obesity. This model estimates that the prevalence of total diabetes (diagnosed and undiagnosed) in England is higher than previously suggested. An ageing population and increasing prevalence of obesity imply that the prevalence of diabetes will continue to rise and health services should be planned accordingly.

Please choose payment method:






(PDF emailed within 0-6 h: $19.90)

Accession: 056166630

Download citation: RISBibTeXText

PMID: 21480968

DOI: 10.1111/j.1464-5491.2010.03216.x


Related references

Undiagnosed diabetes in the over-60s: performance of the Association of Public Health Observatories (APHO) Diabetes Prevalence Model in a general practice. Diabetic Medicine 29(1): 115-120, 2012

Undiagnosed diabetes in the over-6s performance of the Association of Public Health Observatories APHO Diabetes Prevalence Model in a general practice. 2012

Global estimates of the prevalence of diabetes for 2010 and 2030. Diabetes Research and Clinical Practice 87(1): 4, 2010

IDF diabetes atlas: global estimates of the prevalence of diabetes for 2011 and 2030. Diabetes Research and Clinical Practice 94(3): 311-321, 2011

Diabetes prevalence in England, 2001--estimates from an epidemiological model. Diabetic Medicine 23(2): 189-197, 2006

Global prevalence of diabetes: estimates for the year 2000 and projections for 2030. Diabetes Care 27(5): 1047-1053, 2004

Global prevalence of diabetes: estimates for the year 2000 and projections for 2030. Diabetes Care 27(10): 2568-9; Author Reply 2569, 2004

Modeling the impact of prevention policies on future diabetes prevalence in the United States: 2010-2030. Population Health Metrics 11(1): 18, 2013

Global Prevalence of Diabetes: Estimates for the Year 2000 and Projections for 2030: Response to Rathman and Giani. Diabetes Care 27(10): 2569-2570, 2004

Racial/ethnic variation in prevalence estimates for United States prediabetes under alternative 2010 American Diabetes Association criteria: 1988-2008. Ethnicity & Disease 22(4): 451-458, 2012

Diabetes prevalence from health insurance data: evaluation of estimates by comparison with a population-based diabetes register. Diabete and Metabolisme 19(1 Pt 2): 89-95, 1993

The demographics and prevalence of youth (15-24 year olds) with type 1 diabetes in the Canterbury District Health Board catchment area in 2010: has the prevalence changed since 2003?. New Zealand Medical Journal 125(1363): 22-28, 2013

Is diabetes color-blind? Growth of prevalence of diagnosed diabetes in children through 2030. Population Health Management 18(3): 172-178, 2015

Comparison of type 2 diabetes prevalence estimates in Saudi Arabia from a validated Markov model against the International Diabetes Federation and other modelling studies. Diabetes Research and Clinical Practice 103(3): 496-503, 2014

Association between Breastfeeding and Prevalence of Diabetes in Korean Parous Women: The Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 2010-2014. Korean Journal of Family Medicine 39(5): 273-278, 2018