+ Site Statistics
+ Search Articles
+ PDF Full Text Service
How our service works
Request PDF Full Text
+ Follow Us
Follow on Facebook
Follow on Twitter
Follow on LinkedIn
+ Subscribe to Site Feeds
Most Shared
PDF Full Text
+ Translate
+ Recently Requested

A Mathematical Model that Simulates Control Options for African Swine Fever Virus (ASFV)



A Mathematical Model that Simulates Control Options for African Swine Fever Virus (ASFV)



Plos one 11(7): E0158658



A stochastic model designed to simulate transmission dynamics of African swine fever virus (ASFV) in a free-ranging pig population under various intervention scenarios is presented. The model was used to assess the relative impact of the timing of the implementation of different control strategies on disease-related mortality. The implementation of biosecurity measures was simulated through incorporation of a decay function on the transmission rate. The model predicts that biosecurity measures implemented within 14 days of the onset of an epidemic can avert up to 74% of pig deaths due to ASF while hypothetical vaccines that confer 70% immunity when deployed prior to day 14 of the epidemic could avert 65% of pig deaths. When the two control measures are combined, the model predicts that 91% of the pigs that would have otherwise succumbed to the disease if no intervention was implemented would be saved. However, if the combined interventions are delayed (defined as implementation from > 60 days) only 30% of ASF-related deaths would be averted. In the absence of vaccines against ASF, we recommend early implementation of enhanced biosecurity measures. Active surveillance and use of pen-side diagnostic assays, preferably linked to rapid dissemination of this data to veterinary authorities through mobile phone technology platforms are essential for rapid detection and confirmation of ASF outbreaks. This prediction, although it may seem intuitive, rationally confirms the importance of early intervention in managing ASF epidemics. The modelling approach is particularly valuable in that it determines an optimal timing for implementation of interventions in controlling ASF outbreaks.

Please choose payment method:






(PDF emailed within 1 workday: $29.90)

Accession: 057031423

Download citation: RISBibTeXText

PMID: 27391689


Related references

Swine monocytes macrophages can be stimulated by the murine macrophage growth factor csf 1 in vitro use in a virus cell model for investigating african swine fever virus asfv. Abstracts of the Annual Meeting of the American Society for Microbiology 89: 379, 1989

The non-haemadsorbing African swine fever virus isolate ASFV/NH/P68 provides a model for defining the protective anti-virus immune response. Journal of General Virology 82(Pt 3): 513-523, 2001

Development of a nested PCR and its internal control for the detection of African swine fever virus (ASFV) in Ornithodoros erraticus. Archives of Virology 151(4): 819-826, 2006

Virus-specific CTL in SLA-inbred swine recovered from experimental African swine fever virus (ASFV) infection. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences 532: 462-464, 1988

The low-virulent African swine fever virus (ASFV/NH/P68) induces enhanced expression and production of relevant regulatory cytokines (IFNalpha, TNFalpha and IL12p40) on porcine macrophages in comparison to the highly virulent ASFV/L60. Archives of Virology 153(10): 1845-1854, 2008

Structure of African swine fever virus (ASFV). Hog Cholera: sical Swine Fever and African Swine Fever, 543-554, 1977

Some considerations on African swine fever virus (ASFV) infection. Revista Portuguesa de Ciencias Veterinarias 93(525): 3-23, 1998

Specific resistance to the african swine fever virus asfv. Revista Portuguesa de Ciencias Veterinarias 86(498): 76-82, 85-88, 1991

The non-haemadsorbing African swine fever virus isolate ASFV. Journal of general virology 82(3): 513-523, 2001

A novel TLR3 inhibitor encoded by African swine fever virus (ASFV). Archives of Virology 156(4): 597-609, 2011

Porcine immune responses to African swine fever virus (ASFV) infection. Veterinary Immunology and Immunopathology 43(1/3): 99-106, 1994

Antibody studies in animals infected with African swine fever virus (ASFV). Fedn Proc 26: 2, 482 p, 1967

Molecular characterization of the non-haemadsorbing African swine fever virus isolate (ASFV/NH/P68). Revista Portuguesa de Ciencias Veterinarias 90(515): 120-130, 1995

In vitro inhibition of the replication of haemorrhagic septicaemia virus (VHSV) and African swine fever virus (ASFV) by extracts from marine microalgae. Antiviral Research 44(1): 67-73, 1999

Survival of African swine fever virus (ASFV) in various traditional Italian dry-cured meat products. Preventive Veterinary Medicine 162: 126-130, 2019