Maximum rainfall return period by extreme values type I distribution in Lavras, Minas Gerais state, Brazil

Beijo, L.A.; Muniz, J.A.; Castro Neto, P.

Ciencia E Agrotecnologia 29(3): 657-667

2005


ISSN/ISBN: 1413-7054
Accession: 070568984

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Abstract
The knowledge of the probable maximum rainfall is very important in the elaboration of agricultural and hydraulic engineering projects. Therefore this paper aimed to determine punctual and interval estimates of the probable maximum rainfall for return periods of 2, 5, 10, 20, 30, 50 and 75 years, at region of Lavras using the extreme values type I distribution, for periods of fifteen days, one month and one year. Maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters of the distribution were worked out. Jackknife Confidence Intervals for the estimates of probable maximum rainfall were calculated. A good fitting was observed for the annual series data; but not for the monthly, series data (specifically in july and august); and for the fifteen days series data no good model was found for the whole period, but just for the rainy season. One main conclusion is that the confidence intervals provided for the maximum rainfall values are the more appropriate to plan hydraulic works at Lavras region.